Election '08 Rolls On

I am dialed into the Democratic and Republican elections at last. It took awhile to ignite interest in this election, but I have realized that it is completely up in the air as we head toward February 5th, and I am glad for that. The 2004 election was thoroughly uninteresting because it was Bush against whoever the Democrats picked out of a hat. This one, on the other hand, is anyone's to win.

Let's see if my analysis makes sense here. We've had Huckabee win Iowa, because he worked hard for it, by talking with the people there and identifying with them. We've had a black man that can be utterly inspiring at times win that same state. And now in New Hampshire a man that I am pulling for proved he can be the Republican front-runner, and a woman won a presidential primary because she mobilized single women who had not previously cared to vote.

Now, Hillary has a slight advantage in total delegates for the nomination over Obama. Romney has a slight lead over Huckabee, with McCain gaining momentum daily. Obama will win Nevada because he got the Culinary Union endorsement just today (helpful for a caucus because they can patrol around the state and tell people how great Obama is), and if Hillary can make a strong case in South Carolina (An Edwards lock) and Florida, the race will continue all the way until Edwards gives up and supports Obama, giving him a 20% boost. For the GOP, Romney and Giuliani are discovering that only pockets of people like them, so I see it as a two man race between McCain and Huckabee. If McCain wins Michigan next Tuesday, he can win the nomination, because that tells me most of the Midwest would follow Michigan.

Prediction: Obama vs. McCain